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Under the influence of the global financial crisis, the industry generally believes that due to too many uncertainties, it is difficult to predict the heavy-duty vehicle market in 2009. Therefore, in the marketing or business meetings held at the end of 2008 and at the beginning of this year by major heavy-duty truck companies, manufacturers changed the practice of high-profile announcement of new year production and sales plans in previous years, and did not issue specific sales plans or publish it in a vague manner.
Look at the heavy truck market in 2008 from 3 perspectives
In 2008, sales of heavy trucks reached 380,000 vehicles in the first six months alone, an increase of 48.6% year-on-year, and 77.98% of the total sales volume of 487,481 units in 2007. Under such circumstances, each host plant will do its utmost to expand its production capacity, work overtime and build a new high of its own production capacity.
However, after July, the market regained its “rationality†and the spread of the US financial crisis caused a sharp decline in China’s import and export trade. The total volume of road freight declined sharply, and sales volume fell again after September, setting a new monthly low for the whole year. In November, the sales volume was less than 20,000 units. In December, it was 20,255 units. If it wasn't for manufacturers to compete for rankings, December sales would definitely be less than 20,000 units.
From the point of view of sub-model sales, the model structure of trucks in 2008 was more rational, namely, sales of medium-sized vehicles were decreasing, and heavy, light, and mini-vehicles were growing.
1. The growth rate of heavy-duty trucks slowed down, with a total of 346,400 units sold, a year-on-year increase of 11.81%, which was a drop of 32.48% from the previous year.
2. The semi-trailer tractor market entered “relative saturation†in 2008 and sold a total of 194,100 vehicles, an increase of only 9.21% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 82.65 percentage points compared with the previous year. In the second half of the year, due to the large-scale outage of vehicles, the growth of this market segment was inhibited, which reflected the limited increase in long-distance freight traffic.
3. Among the major varieties of trucks (including non-integrated vehicles), medium-duty trucks have seen an end to growth, showing a significant decline, totaling 207,100 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 12.51%. This shows that heavy-duty, light-duty, and micro-scale are rationally infiltrating this segment of the market, and the demand for medium-sized vehicles is shrinking to its unique area. Therefore, the decline in sales volume is reasonable.
4. The sales of light trucks were 1,175,500, an increase of 5.29% year-on-year, which was a decrease of 10.90% compared with the previous year.
5. In comparison, minivans for rural areas, farmers and urban vehicles performed even better. A total of 361,300 units were sold, a year-on-year increase of 18.88%, and the growth rate was 10.52 percentage points higher than the previous year.
From the sales ranking in 2008, there are still 9 companies that sold over 10,000 vehicles and remain unchanged. Only in the rankings, Bei Ben Heavy-Duty-City has surpassed SAIC Iveco Hongyan, and other companies are ranked unchanged. Among them, the market share of the top nine companies in 2008 was as high as 95.88%, which was 1% more than the previous year (94.8% in 2007), indicating that the production concentration was increasing. On the whole, this situation will continue and no major changes will occur.
From the perspective of product type, FAW has an absolute advantage in the tractor market, with sales of 50,589 units, accounting for 26.06% of total tractor sales, 34,518 heavy trucks, accounting for 17.78%, 32,409 Futian, 32,105 Shaanxi Auto, and 30,516 Dongfeng. , other manufacturers are only 10,000 vehicles. Ranked No. 6 Beiben sold 8566 vehicles, while the 7th Hualing sold only 2,946 vehicles. The top 5 manufacturers in the market share of 92.78%, the market concentration is very high, other manufacturers want to enter, it is very difficult, it also shows that the new tractor to get market recognition, not overnight.
In respect of non-integrated heavy-duty trucks, Dongfeng has an advantage, with sales of 63,812 vehicles, accounting for 26.64% of the total sales of non-completed heavy-duty trucks, FAW 54217 units, 22.63%, 39,011 heavy trucks, Shaanxi Automobile 26,339 units, Futian 23,957 units, and SAIC Motor. Iveco Hongyan 20,351 vehicles, the 6 companies in the market share of up to 95.05%, indicating that the market concentration is high, other manufacturers are difficult to catch up.
Heavy trucks, heavy truck sales of 37,895 vehicles, accounting for 35.5% of the total sales of heavy trucks, the second part of the Beiben was 16,472 vehicles, accounting for only 15.43%, Dongfeng 12162, JAC 10786, other manufacturers are only 10,000. The top 4 manufacturers in this market share 72.43%, the market concentration is relatively decentralized, competition is fierce, and the market entry barrier is low.
Two major problems constrain development
The 2008 heavy truck market has two issues worth paying attention to. In fact, these problems not only appeared in 2008 but only in 2008.
First, the core technology is missing. The implementation of the National 3 emission standards is the best proof. Whether it is a common rail, single pump or pump nozzle fuel system, it needs to rely on foreign parts manufacturers, and there is no right to speak about the price, and even the order quantity must be based on people's faces!
Therefore, although China is already the world's largest producer of heavy-duty vehicles in terms of volume, sales of the top three companies rank among the top in the world, but what are the profit indicators, innovation capabilities, and reputation of the global market? This is worth thinking deeply by the Chinese government and enterprises. If we do not fundamentally attach importance to technology and focus on innovation and do a good job in basic work, if we want to become a strong country for heavy vehicles, I am afraid there is still a long way to go.
Second, the price war is still the main means of sales. The price war is still the main means for all major manufacturers to compete for market and users. The introduction of EGR engines is a typical example. The price war is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it causes the OEM to lower the prices of the supporting plants, which makes it difficult for the supporting plants to obtain profits and makes it difficult to invest funds in research and development. On the other hand, due to the lower prices, the profit margin of the OEM has also been greatly reduced. The actual R&D investment is insufficient, it is difficult to compete with foreign counterparts, and the product quality is difficult to compare with the opponent, resulting in the lack of product core competitiveness.
09 sales will decline in larger
The macroeconomic environment, consumer demand for industrial policies, and external environmental conditions are the four key factors affecting the development of the commercial vehicle market.
The degree of boom in the commercial vehicle market is particularly affected by the macro economy, especially heavy trucks. In the author's opinion, policy factors will become the dominant factor affecting the trend of the heavy truck market this year. Although due to the declining cargo inventories, road freight has picked up this year, heavy-duty truck sales have begun to show signs of recovery since February, but the recently released domestic and foreign economic statistics have aggravated the economic recovery of the industry. Difficulties, time concerns. Zhang Mao, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, also said that the current economic downside risk in China is more serious than expected. Obviously, at the beginning, we all underestimated the serious impact of the financial crisis on our country’s real economy and the world economy.
From another point of view, after the recent four years of rapid growth, even if there is no crisis, the heavy truck industry itself will enter the adjustment period, such adjustment is normal, is for future growth, only crisis The arrival of the adjustment has accelerated the time and magnitude.
From the “prevention of overheating and preventing inflation†at the beginning of 2008 to the current “promote economic growth†and “ensuring that the growth rate of GDP in 2009 is not less than 8%â€, the direction of economic regulation has undergone fundamental changes. This will play an important role in the development of the heavy-duty truck market in 2009 and delay the drastic decline in heavy truck sales.
On the whole, despite favorable conditions in 2009, unfavorable factors and uncertainties still cannot be overlooked. Therefore, sales of heavy trucks in 2009 should be declining.
Considering the various factors affecting sales, the author put forward a more optimistic basic view: the total amount is about 400,000 vehicles, of which semi-trailer tractors will be reduced from 194,000 to about 150,000, and heavy trucks will have 346,000. The number of cars dropped to around 250,000 (the dump truck market will be flat or slightly lower). In January, due to the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, the total sales volume should be within 15,000 vehicles, and it will rise to 25,000 units in February. The month afterwards will be relatively stable, staying within 30,000 vehicles (the total amount is expected to be around 160,000 units in the first half of the year). In the second half of the year, with the effectiveness of macro-control measures and the improvement of the economic situation, sales volume is expected to rebound (optimistically, similar to the second half of 2007).