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â– Subsidy policy stirs up new energy vehicle market
However, for this data, Huang Yonghe, chief engineer of the Automotive Technology and Information Research Institute of China Automotive Technology and Research Center, did not show too much optimism. According to his analysis, from the monthly sales data, in November and December 2016, China's new energy vehicle market has achieved significant growth, mainly due to the outbreak of new energy vehicle fraud, the market has lagged behind, and subsidies adjusted from the market. Information allows companies to regain confidence, otherwise 2016 may be the same as in 2015.
Specific to this year, in the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales has dropped sharply, and many people attribute it to the late release of subsidy standards. Huang Yonghe believes that compared with the announcement time of subsidy standards, non-individual users must have a mileage of 30,000 kilometers to receive subsidies, which has a greater impact on the market and increases the difficulty of business operation. Due to the above factors, the new energy vehicle market is not optimistic this year.
Compared with the performance of the new energy vehicle market, Huang Yonghe is more worried about the competitiveness of China's new energy vehicles. He admits that China's new energy vehicles are not highly competitive: "According to the global new energy automobile industry competitiveness index, China ranks second to last among the five most important new energy automobile countries, the United States, Germany, and Japan. In the forefront, China is only higher than South Korea, and the gap is not big."
In addition, China's new energy vehicle market is very different from the global market, with 409,000 pure electric vehicles and 99,000 plug-in hybrids. "From the perspective of foreign markets, plug-in hybrid vehicles dominate." Huang Yonghe said.
The market performance of new energy vehicles directly affects the market situation of power batteries. Zhang Xiaofei, chairman of a research institute, said that in 2016, China's lithium battery output was 63.3GWh, output value increased by 38.9%, and power battery output increased by 70%, but lower than expected at the beginning of the year. Zhang Xiaofei stressed that the future passenger car will be the engine of power battery growth, and the expected shipment volume in 2020 is 135GWh.
â– Call for continued improvement of subsidy policy
Due to malicious deception and illegal remediation, a large-scale fraud incident broke out in China's new energy vehicle market last year. Huang Yonghe said: "The main reasons for the outstanding problems are the subsidy for subsidies, the high subsidies for some models, the scattered industry and the uneven quality of products."
In response to the main reason for fraudulent compensation, the relevant departments have improved the subsidy method in a targeted manner: appropriately raising the threshold and guiding technological progress; rationally adjusting the subsidy standard, and stipulating the upper limit; improving the subsidy payment method and increasing the scope of the slope; Regulatory responsibilities and improve the regulatory system. In the "Notice on Continued Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), the specific process for reporting subsidies is stipulated.
However, the further improvement of the subsidy policy has also led to some new problems while eliminating fraudulent acts. Some business people said that the "Notice" is relatively standardized, but it does not conform to the actual industry in implementation. The main problem is that the subsidy cycle is too long.
The company's specific analysis said that the subsidy process, which is only applied for and reviewed once a year, prolongs the time period for subsidies received by enterprises, resulting in very high financial pressure. Since 2015, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has grown rapidly. The more vehicles that auto companies sell, the more funds they use, and the longer the subsidy period for new energy vehicles, which leads to greater financial pressure on auto companies. Correspondingly, it also makes the payment period for auto companies to support enterprises, especially battery companies, too long. "China's battery companies are relatively weak, and it is difficult to withstand such financial pressures. Some companies have clearly stated that if they cannot pay in time, they will stop supplying. This situation will continue to severely dampen the development momentum of China's new energy vehicles. Said the business person.
The reporter noted that during the forum, many people in the industry suggested that some subsidies should be allocated to enterprises to solve the practical difficulties of enterprises.
â– New energy vehicle policy enters adjustment period
From a global perspective, the Chinese government has the strongest support for new energy vehicles, but there have been many problems in the support process. With the gradual development of the industry, the corresponding policies have also entered an adjustment period. Huang Yonghe analyzed the adjustment trend of new energy vehicle policies from various aspects.
Huang Yonghe said that there are two trends in the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. First, the subsidy policy is shifting to support and strengthening the market, and the market mechanism for the survival of the fittest will be promoted. Second, the new energy vehicles are still in the early stage of development, and subsidies have completely declined. After that, there is a possibility of a slipping down risk.
Specifically, Huang Yonghe said: "Fuyou and Fuqiang mainly consider three factors, according to the technical level of the industry, timely improve the subsidy technology threshold, eliminate outdated enterprises and products; according to product costs, timely improve subsidy standards, promote superior enterprises and products According to the sales data, the subsidy funds will support technologically advanced enterprises and excellent products to promote their market development.†And for the cliff-like decline that may occur after the subsidies have subsided, he also pointed out that the relevant ministries are producing, purchasing and using Research on infrastructure and other aspects to develop a roadmap for encouraging policies in the post-subsidy era.
In terms of industry management, Huang Yonghe said that there will also be a series of changes. First, restrict traditional fuel vehicles and regulate investment in new energy vehicles; second, new pure electric passenger cars will enter the threshold or increase; third, the responsibility for new energy vehicles will continue to increase; fourth is the specification of automotive power battery industry. The conditions are gradually tightened; the fifth is that in the future, China's power battery industry management will optimize ex ante management, strengthen post-event supervision, and implement the strategy of supporting and supporting the strong.
Huang Yonghe said: "In terms of investment in new energy vehicles, it is possible to shift to higher thresholds and strict control. The threshold for improvement is mainly to impose stricter requirements on prototype production, positive research and development capabilities, core technology mastery, investment and financing. Strict management is mainly aimed at production consistency and after-sales service capabilities."
Regarding the adjustment trend of industry management policies, the industry has the highest attention to the “Management Regulations for New Pure Electric Passenger Vehicle Enterprises†(hereinafter referred to as the “Regulationsâ€). Huang Yonghe said: "From the current situation, the threshold of the "Regulations" may be raised. According to the "Regulations", there are two voices in the industry. One party thinks that the status quo should be maintained. The reason is that many of the indicators in the Regulations are new in the world. The highest standard setting for energy vehicles should not be improved, and the existing standards will continue to improve. Most of the production vehicles will have lower production parameters than the prototypes. If the standards are too high, the production consistency will not be met. The other party believes that it should be improved. The threshold is that the new energy automobile industry is developing rapidly, the technology is updating rapidly, and the number of enterprises is increasing. It is necessary to further improve the development of the threshold industry. At present, 15 enterprises have passed the approval of new energy vehicles, and it is foreseeable that there will be more follow-up. Multi-enterprise entering the new energy auto industry needs to raise the threshold to select a more powerful enterprise."
Huang Yonghe particularly stressed that it is expected that the "Regulations" will be revised and improved in the next two years, and how to improve the need for in-depth research.
China's new energy automobile industry is getting closer to the key point in 2020. More companies will join the new energy automobile industry in the near future. We look forward to the relevant policies to further promote the development of new energy vehicles.
Subsidy policy stirs up new energy vehicle market policy into adjustment period
In 2016, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was 507,000, and the global sales volume was 861,900. China's sales accounted for 58.82% of the world's total, ranking first in the world.