The machine tool industry is generally good, and the output value ranks first in the world

Affected by the financial crisis in 2009, China's machine tool industry experienced a sluggish situation in the first and second quarters. However, under the dual role of the government’s policy of expanding domestic demand and the ten industrial restructuring and revitalization plans that were successively introduced, it entered the third quarter of 2009. The growth rate of the tool industry was double-digit growth; the development of the whole industry showed a trend of rising before and afterwards, and the overall trend was positive; the decrease in profit of the entire industry narrowed, and the loss of the company’s profits had narrowed.

At the same time, the output value of China's machine tools ranks first in the world ranking third from last year. It is worth noting that the growth rate of the Jinqi machine tool industry is still relatively low; the import and export of the whole industry has fallen sharply, and the export decline has been particularly serious. Looking at the overall situation, the development of the whole industry in 2009 was relatively stable. The major products imported did not pose a threat to the industry in China and the industry was in a basic state of safety.

The global machine tool industry has been hit hard

Under the influence of the international financial crisis, the production and sales of machine tools in various countries are seriously affected. According to the data of the world's major machine tool manufacturers published by the Cardenaar Corporation on January 11, 2010, Germany and Japan, where the previous year's machine tool output value ranks in the front ranks, have fallen sharply. Among them, the output value of German machine tools will drop by 40% from 15.6 billion US dollars in the previous year; the output value of Japanese machine tools will decline by nearly 50% compared with the previous year, and will be less than 9 billion US dollars.

Under the circumstances of the world's machine tool industry downturn, China's machine tool industry, driven by the government's policy of stimulating domestic demand, remained basically the same or slightly increased. In 2009, the output value of China's machine tools is expected to reach 13.96 billion U.S. dollars, which is the same as last year, which surpassed that of Germany and Japan for the first time. China's Shenyang Machine Tool Group will enter the world's top five for the first time with annual production value of 120.62 billion yuan. Five).

Smooth over the crisis

From January to November of 2009, China's machine tool industry completed a total industrial output value of 349.46 billion yuan, an increase of 12%, an increase of 6.5 percentage points over the first half of the year. The sales revenue of the entire industry was 331.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, and the growth rate increased by 5.7 percentage points from January to August.

From January to November 2009, China's machine tool industry achieved a profit of 17.641 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, which was a 11.1 percentage point drop from January to August. Among them, the profit margin of the small-scale cutting industry was the largest, which was close to 30%; the profits of the gold-cutting, metal forming, and machine tool accessories industries decreased by 7% year-on-year, both lower than the industry average of -1.8%. The profit margin of product sales was 5.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage point, 0.2 percentage point higher than that of January to August, and 1.2 percentage points higher than that of January to May. The sales rate reached 97.4%, an increase of 1.2% over the same period of last year.

From January to November of 2009, China's machine tool industry completed 565,961 Taiwan's gold-cutting machine tools, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%. Among them, 129,298 CNC machine tools were completed, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%. Compared with the decrease in January-October, they narrowed by 3.0 and 4.4 percentage points respectively, and the decline slowed down.

With the implementation of a series of industrial policies centered on structural adjustment in the country, the market demand structure is also accelerating, the demand for ordinary and economical CNC machine tools has shrunk, and the demand for universal and advanced CNC machine tools has continued to grow. According to the monitoring of 230 key contact companies in the machine tool industry, the CNC machine tool production rate and the machine tool unit price have been increasing from January to November 2009. The numerical control rate of the metalworking machine tool production value of the key linking companies was 52.7%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points over the same period of last year; the numerical control rate of the gold cutting machine tool production was 54.1%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points over the same period of last year; the numerical control rate of the forming machine tool output was 45.8%, an increase of 6.8 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. . The average unit price of gold-cutting machine tools and CNC gold-cutting machine tools was RMB 194,000 and RMB 409,000, respectively, which were 23% and 11% higher than the same period of last year.

In addition, the market share of the domestic metal processing machine tool output value continues to increase, reaching 70%, and the domestic market share of CNC machine tool output value reached 63%.

Affected by the financial crisis, the international machine tool market continued to slump. In 2009, China's machine tool exports from the high-speed growth of previous years turned to a deep decline.

The market competition was fierce, and the unit price of export machine tools fell sharply. From January to November 2009, the export of machine tool products was US$4.23 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 35.7%; of which, the export of metal processing machine tools was US$1.26 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 35.0%.

Affected by the pull of domestic demand, the decline in imports slowed down, and the proportion of imported high-end machine tools increased. From January to November of 2009, the cumulative import of machine tool products was US$8.69 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 23.4%; of which, the import of metal processing machine tools was US$5.3 billion, a decrease of 23.9% year-on-year. The average unit price of imported machine tools was USD 89,000, which was an increase of 6.0% over the same period of last year. In addition, there have been some changes in the sources of imports. The number of machine tools imported from the United States, Japan, and Taiwan has decreased significantly. Machine tools imported from Germany, Italy, France, and other European regions have continued to grow.

According to a monthly report on the monitoring of 230 key enterprises in 7 small industries, the sales revenue, total profit, total industrial output value, and product sales value of key contact enterprises in January-November 2009 are still negative year-on-year growth, with the exception of total profits. The year-on-year decrease in the three indicators further slowed down. Among the seven small industries, only the forging machinery industry mentioned above has positive growth. Compared with the same period of last year, finished product inventories fell by 8.1%, and finished product inventories were further digested.

Policy for development

To cope with the crisis and promote industrial upgrading, the State Council has successively issued 10 major industrial adjustment and revitalization plans since mid-January 2009. In particular, after the promulgation of the "Restructuring and Revitalization Plan for the Equipment Manufacturing Industry", the machine tool industry has continuously obtained policy support and faces good opportunities for development. The major scientific and technological projects of the machine tool will set the goal of localization of machine tools for aerospace, shipbuilding, automobile and electric power equipment manufacturing to more than 80%, and the development space for high-end and heavy-duty CNC machine tools will be enormous. As the equipment manufacturing industry continues to pick up, the repressed upgrade demand is expected to be released in 2010, which will accelerate industrial upgrading. Large-scale machine tools and high-end CNC machine tools will be the first to benefit. At the same time, the development of related industries will also further stimulate the research, development and production of domestic high-end CNC machine tools, which will play a positive role in promoting machine tool consumption.

At the same time, relevant departments of the State actively organize the formulation and implementation of major special projects to enhance industrial competitiveness. The industry associations used the established industrial damage warning system to organize relevant experts to formulate implementation plans for major special projects of “high-end CNC machine tools and basic equipment”. After being reviewed and approved by relevant departments, they began to formally implement them in March 2009. The implementation of major special projects will further improve the manufacturing capabilities and level of the machine tool industry, and increase the international competitiveness of China's machine tools.

In addition, under the guidance of trade associations, companies focus on new market development and expand product exports. According to the current global economic situation, industry associations and relevant key enterprises should strengthen communication and strive to maintain the export of traditional products such as machine tools, tools, heavy-duty machine tools and forming machine tools. In response to the current fast-growing Asian market, by providing comprehensive after-sales services, we can achieve the goal of bulk export of medium and high-end machine tools. In particular, after the entry into force of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Agreement on January 1, 2010, most goods trades enjoy zero tariffs. Chinese enterprises should use this convenient condition to pay attention to the ASEAN market demand and strengthen the export of medium and high-grade machine tools.

Industrial security situation is optimistic

In terms of industrial safety, first of all, the United States and other countries want to suppress the development of localization of key technologies in China's machine tool industry, which deserves attention. On October 23, 2008, the U.S. government imposed sanctions on certain Chinese companies (including a machine tool company) for violating the "non-proliferation laws against Iran and Syria" with trade activities, indicating that before September 2010, any U.S. government agencies It is not allowed to conduct physical, service, and technical exchanges with these companies, and related international aid projects will also be automatically frozen.

Second, the depreciation of foreign currencies has caused the decline in the competitiveness of Chinese products, which has brought sales pressure to the domestic market. In the past two years, the South Korean won has depreciated by 20% against the U.S. dollar. The company reported that due to the sharp depreciation of the Korean Won, the price of some Korean CNC cutters has dropped significantly, which has caused great pressure on Chinese companies.

Finally, some traditional advantages of export machine tool products continue to fall, but also should focus on. Recent export data show that the unit price of machine tools has continued to fall, with an average unit price drop of 25%. Some lower value-added products with traditional advantages have a larger decline in unit prices, and should attract attention.

In general, the main products imported by machine tools in 2009 did not pose a threat to the industry in China. The industrial safety situation was in a basic state of safety.

It is expected that the growth rate of the machine tool industry will reach 15% in 2010. The continued implementation of the ten industrial restructuring and revitalization plans, particularly economic stimulus measures, has driven the investment in aviation, automobiles, railways, green energy, shipping, and electronic information industries to the high-end development of the market demand structure. This gives the machine tool industry a belt. The opportunity of industrial upgrading and structural adjustment has come. With the continued implementation of the “Adjustment and Revitalization Plan for the Equipment Manufacturing Industry”, the machine tool industry may become polarized in 2010: small-size and low-end machine tools continue to be in a downturn, and high-end machine tools and large machine tools will start to recover under high-end demand. . With the GDP growth rate exceeding 8%, the growth rate of China's machine tool industry in 2010 will reach about 15%.

Imports and exports of machine tools will increase to positive growth, but the increase will not exceed 10%. From the perspective of the international market, with the manifestation of the effectiveness of economic stimulus policies in various countries, the global economy will gradually recover in 2010, and demand will pick up. Exports of China's machine tool products and metal processing machine tools are expected to stop falling, and it is expected that there will be a recovery year-on-year. The number of digits increases. With the implementation of the three-year adjustment and revitalization plan, the demand for high-end CNC machine tools will continue to expand. It is expected that there will be a slight increase in the import of machine tool products and metal processing machine tools in China in 2010.