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At the same time, he also stated that the global financial turmoil may intensify in the fourth quarter, the global economic growth rate will further slow down, and the external environment for the economic operation of the petrochemical industry may continue to deteriorate. However, it should also be noted that the ability of the oil and chemical industries to cope with risks has significantly increased.
Some product exports have decreased significantly
Since the beginning of this year, the demand for traditional chemicals has been relatively strong, and the growth in energy production has been stable. According to the report, from January to August, the cumulative production of crude oil in China reached 264.432 million tons, an increase of 2.1%; natural gas production was 50.36 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%; cumulative processing of crude oil was 27,722,000 tons, an increase of 5.7%; refined oil production was 128,999,000 tons. , an increase of 7.4%.
At the same time, from January to August, the total output of chemical fertilizers was 39.658 million tons, an increase of 6%, of which 29.241 million tons of nitrogen fertilizer, an increase of 6.7%; phosphorus fertilizer 8.477 million tons, an increase of 2.8%. As a result of the special tariff imposed on the export of chemical fertilizers, the export of chemical fertilizers has dropped significantly. In August, the export delivery value of chemical fertilizers was 590 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.6%, of which nitrogen fertilizer decreased by 46.6%, phosphate fertilizer decreased by 46.1%, and compound fertilizer decreased by 69.9%.
In August, with the increase in cost, fertilizer prices continued to rise. From the 13 major fertilizers tracked by the petrochemical association, the average increase was 76.2%. Due to the high prices, the limited purchasing power of farmers, coupled with the obstruction of exports, the sales of enterprises have decreased significantly and the inventory has increased. In August, the sales rate of fertilizer was only 94.6%, which was the lowest this year and a decrease of 3.84% year-on-year. According to preliminary statistics, the accumulated inventory of diammonium phosphate in August exceeded 1 million tons. Fertilizer companies will face greater difficulties at the end of this year.
Oil refining industry may realize profitability
Under the current situation that the world economy is not very good, international crude oil prices have entered the track of inertial decline, and are likely to remain at US$90 or less per barrel, which will give hope to domestic refinery companies. Industry analysts believe that with the adjustment of the domestic "one guarantee, one control" macroeconomic policy, it is expected that the petrochemical industry will maintain a relatively stable growth in the fourth quarter.
Feng Shiliang pointed out that it is expected that the growth rate of the total output value of the petrochemical industry in the fourth quarter of this year may slow down. The annual increase will be about 28%; sales revenue will increase by about 27%; if the international oil price continues to maintain a high price, the refining industry may be out of trouble in October. Turning losses into profits; import and export trade will continue to maintain a relatively rapid growth, an increase of about 35%; fixed assets investment growth of about 27%; the main chemical product output growth of 5% to 20%.
Industry development faces three major challenges
From the economic operation of the oil and chemical industry in the past eight months, Feng Shiliang believes that there are three major issues in the development of the industry:
First, the continuous turbulence in the international financial industry may further slow down the world economy. He believes that the Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States, has declared bankruptcy, which has exacerbated the turbulence in the international financial market and increased the downside risks to the global economy. In particular, the economies of the United States and Western Europe may further slow down, which will have a greater impact on China’s exports and investment.
Second, the increase in product prices is still high. In August, driven by rising costs, the domestic market prices for petroleum and chemical products were generally high and the price increase was still relatively large. Among the 168 kinds of petroleum and chemical products that are closely followed by the petrochemical association, prices have increased by 136 kinds, accounting for 81% of the year-on-year increase, and 32 types have fallen, accounting for 19%.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in August, the ex-factory price of industrial products (PPI) rose by 10.1% year-on-year, and the purchase price of raw materials, fuel, and power rose by 15.3%. In terms of sub-categories, the ex-factory price of crude oil rose by 38.2% year-on-year, and the ex-factory prices of gasoline, diesel and kerosene in refined oil products rose by 33.7%, 22.1% and 36.1%, respectively. Among the major chemical products, the price of sulfuric acid rose by 296.4% year-on-year, which is still the most rapid growth product currently.
In the same period, international crude oil prices began to fall. In August, the average price of WTI crude oil (spot, the same below) was US$119 per barrel, which was US$18.62 lower than last month, up 62.57% year-on-year; the average price of Brent light crude oil in the North Sea was US$116.62 per barrel, compared with the previous month. The price of crude oil in Daqing in China fell by US$20.13 per barrel, up 60.82% year-on-year. The average price of crude oil in Daqing, China, was US$117.58 per barrel, down by US$19.57 per barrel from the previous month, up 58.62%. The average price of naphtha in the international market was US$110.98/barrel, up 54.28%.
“Overall, at present, the prices of some inorganic products and fertilizers are still rising strongly, but the momentum is slowing down; the price adjustment of organic products is accelerating; as oil prices continue to fall, most future petrochemical products prices will enter the down channel.†Feng Shiliang believes that .
Third, the growth of production in some industries has slowed down significantly, and the increase in exports has fallen sharply. In the first eight months of this year, the increase in the output of synthetic resin fell 10.6 percentage points year-on-year; the increase in synthetic fiber fell by about 14 percentage points; the increase in ethylene production dropped by about 16 percentage points; and the chemical fertilizer fell 5.7 percentage points. In the same period, the export delivery value of composite materials fell by 14%; the export delivery value of coatings and pigments industry fell by 23.5 percentage points; chemical fertilizer dropped sharply by 55.7 percentage points; rubber products decreased by 14.5%.
Feng Shiliang believes that if the growth rate of production continues to slow down significantly, the increase in exports will continue to fall sharply, which will have serious adverse effects on the industry.
Related reports: Restricted coal chemical industry development will be limited
In recent years, the coal chemical industry in the central and western regions has witnessed a rapid development momentum: “Several Opinions on Further Promoting Economic and Social Development in Ningxia†passed by the State Council’s executive meeting recently proposed that Ningdong be built into a national coal chemical industry base, and Ningxia also plans to It is necessary to build Asia's largest coal chemical industry base in the next 10 years; Sichuan Yibin coal chemical industry concentration area selection report and development plan passed preliminary review; coal chemical base preferred Qilian County Zhenzhou site; energy province Shanxi coal chemical industry The pace is also accelerating.
The reporter learned that according to the plan, by 2015, Yibin coal chemical base will convert 10 million tons of coal per year, forming a coal-based chemical industry, using methanol as a link, a new type of clean fuel dimethyl ether, methanol to propylene and Deep processing of propylene, acetic acid and ethylene glycol are the final products, making it one of the largest coal chemical bases in Sichuan and even in the Southwest. According to the framework agreement for strategic cooperation between the State Development and Investment Corporation and Shanxi Province, the National Development and Investment Corporation will invest approximately 80 billion yuan in Shanxi in the next 10 years to build a coal-water-electricity-coal chemical cycle. The economic demonstration park will form a coal-water-electricity-methanol-olefins industrial chain to realize the in-situ deep processing transformation of coal resources.
According to the "Mid-term and long-term development plan for coal chemical industry," by 2010, China's coal-to-oil production capacity will reach 1.5 million tons, dimethyl ether 5 million tons, coal-to-olefins 1.4 million tons, and coal-to-methanol 16 million tons. . The continuous rise in the price of oil, coupled with the current status of coal-rich and low-oil in China, gave birth to an upsurge of investment in coal chemical industry. However, Feng Shiliang revealed that, in view of the fact that some localities have blindly started coal chemical projects and exacerbated the pressure on resources, ecology, and the environment, the relevant state departments have decided to strengthen the management of coal chemical industry development. In respect of industrial layout, coal resources are encouraged to continue to develop in the coal chemical industry, coal coal chemical projects in the coal supply area are appropriately arranged, and the development of the coal chemical industry in the district is restricted. At the same time, we encourage the development of coal-based fertilizers and other products; steadily develop coal-based oil, methanol, dimethyl ether, olefins and other petroleum substitute products; and standardize the development of high-energy products such as calcium carbide and coke.
The petrochemical industry's ability to resist pressure has increased significantly
According to the latest analysis report from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, from January to August, the petrochemical industry realized a total output value of 4.444 trillion yuan, an increase of 32.9% year-on-year, an increase of 12.9 percentage points year-on-year; the product sales rate was 98.3%, an increase of 1.49 year-on-year. percentage point. Feng Shiliang, deputy secretary-general of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, said that although the current petrochemical industry is performing well, the growth rate of production in some industries has slowed down significantly, export growth has fallen sharply, price increases have remained at a high level, and international financial markets have continued to deteriorate. The economic situation is not optimistic and the uncertain and unstable factors in the economic operation of the industry have increased.