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Butadiene: Import Dependency Continues to Decline
The growth of China's domestic rubber and plastic industries has provided a certain level of support to the butadiene market. In 2008, the primary demand for butadiene remained concentrated in East China, while price fluctuations in Southeast Asia had a noticeable impact on the domestic market. It is expected that the average price this year will be slightly higher than the previous year, with prices in East China likely ranging between RMB 11,000 and RMB 12,000 per ton. As domestic production capacity for ethylene and C4 products continues to expand, the supply shortage of butadiene in China is expected to improve, reducing reliance on imports over time.
Butadiene is a key petrochemical raw material, serving as the largest monomer in the synthetic rubber industry and an essential intermediate for synthetic resins and other chemical products. In 2007, the domestic butadiene market exhibited three major trends: prices were highly volatile with a large fluctuation range of up to 7,680 yuan/ton; total resource availability increased significantly, with an estimated annual output of around 1.35 million tons and import volumes reaching approximately 110,000 tons; and the market remained closely linked with Southeast Asian prices, which saw a sharp decline, creating psychological pressure on domestic producers and traders.
In recent years, rising international oil prices have supported ethylene prices, and with increasing production costs, it is unlikely that butadiene prices will fall sharply in 2008. Additionally, the significant drop in 2007 led to some technical adjustments in the market. With the development of the paper and footwear industries, especially the expansion of high-grade highways, demand for SBR and SBS is expected to grow substantially, providing some support to butadiene prices.
Looking ahead, the domestic ABS resin market still holds significant potential, which will drive demand for butadiene. ABS resin is widely used in electronics, consumer goods, automotive parts, agricultural machinery, and pipeline systems. As these industries continue to develop, demand for ABS resin is expected to rise significantly. Moreover, K resin, known for its high impact strength, toughness, transparency, and good processing performance, is gaining more attention in the market due to its competitive advantages.
However, the butadiene market in 2008 also faced several unfavorable factors. First, the performance of downstream products was weak, and with limited ability to absorb high costs, there could be a period of oversupply in the butadiene market, which may limit price increases. Second, new production capacities are coming online, such as Daqing Petrochemical’s 70,000-ton/year facility, Sichuan PetroChina’s 150,000-ton plant, Guangzhou Petrochemical’s 120,000-ton unit, and Yangtze Petrochemical’s 100,000-ton project. These additions will put pressure on the market. Third, macroeconomic control and environmental regulations will also affect the downstream markets of butadiene in 2008.