Energy-saving and new energy development plan from fanaticism to rationality

The development of electric vehicles in China is returning to rationality. This is a clear signal sent by the China Automotive Industry Development Forum in Tianjin on September 2nd to 4th.

The "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Development Plan (2011-2020)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Planning") has been submitted to the State Council and has received much attention from the industry. It is possible to cancel the description of the target of new energy vehicles and the national investment of 100 billion, etc. Not pragmatic or even exaggerated.

"The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Ministry of Finance are highly consistent in their views on the energy conservation and new energy technology routes identified in the 12th Five-Year Plan, and this document is reported to the State Council after discussion by various departments." September On the 3rd, the "planning" of difficult production stems from differences in opinion among various ministries and commissions." One said that Su Bo, deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information, explicitly denied.

"The final "Planning" should be a more prudent version, some excitement may be canceled, such as the drafting of some of the specific goals will be removed, especially in 2020 reached 5 million goals, this goal When drafting, there is no basis.” On September 6, an electric vehicle expert who participated in the drafting of the “plan” told the reporter.

From fanaticism to rationality, "We are already a market economy. Even if the state invests in it, it cannot violate the WTO principle. The state's investment can only be the input of infrastructure, and it cannot be an investment in the formation of production capacity."

“It is said that both the scale and the target will be cancelled. The previous set of 5 million is just a general formulation compared with other countries. The high-speed rail has a problem and it is a vehicle for the automotive industry. There is no problem in the development direction of electric vehicles, but the road is very long. On September 3, Zhang Xiaoyu, executive vice president of the China Federation of Machinery Industry, told reporters that the figure of 5 million was too aggressive.

As mentioned in the original version of the "Plan", by 2020, the cumulative production and sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million. Medium-to-heavy hybrid passenger cars account for more than 50% of the annual sales of passenger cars, and the energy-saving and new energy automotive industry. The scale is among the top targets in the world.

Zhang Xiaokai explained that investing 100 billion yuan is absolutely empty words, not the state invests 100 billion yuan, invested 8 billion during the 10th Five-Year Plan, and invested 12.5 billion in the 11th Five-Year Plan. Count national investment. “We are already a market economy. Even if the state invests in it, it cannot violate the WTO principle. The state's investment can only be the input of infrastructure, and it cannot be an investment in the formation of production capacity.”

According to the "draft plan" draft, in the next 10 years, the central government will invest 100 billion yuan for the core technologies of the new energy industry, of which 50 billion yuan will be a special fund for the development of energy-saving and new energy automobile industries, and focus on supporting the development and industrialization of key technologies. , Promote joint development mechanisms such as public platforms; RMB 30 billion to support the demonstration and promotion of new energy vehicles; RMB 20 billion to promote energy-saving vehicles that focus on hybrid vehicles.

In addition, there will also be 10 billion yuan to support the development of the core auto parts industry; 5 billion yuan will be used for the construction of pilot urban infrastructure projects. Obviously, such a formulation will also be weakened in the final version of the "plan".

With regard to the development of electric vehicles, the incident of spontaneous combustion of electric vehicles in Hangzhou has caused a lot of controversy in the industry. In particular, on July 16th, "Qiushi" magazine published an excerpt of Premier Wen Jiabao's report at the Eighth National Congress of the China Association for Science and Technology. The article directly pointed out that the direction of development of China's new energy vehicles is not yet clear and other issues, and this even Many people think that the country's development strategy for electric vehicles has been shaken.

In response, on August 19, the ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology specially organized industry experts to hold closed-door conferences on the future development of new energy and electric vehicles. “The meeting, chaired by the Ministry of Science and Technology Wan Gang and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Miao Xi, personally, should be a response to Premier Wen’s speech. There was no subversive point of view at the meeting. The most fierce point of view was nothing more than to contact the Hangzhou electric vehicle. Self-ignition incident, questioning the development of battery technology." A participant expert told reporters.

“According to my personal understanding, I did not feel that the Prime Minister was criticizing or doubting the current development of electric vehicles, but objectively pointed out that the development of the electric vehicle industry should be conducted in a scientific manner.” Regarding the development of electric vehicles, we must not go at two extremes. We must not be overheated, we must be overwhelmed by problems, and must remain stagnant. We must do it in a down-to-earth manner. The prospects for electric vehicles are no problem.

In the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, I believe that the miniaturization of automobiles and the electrification of power will meet with each other, which is a golden opportunity for the development of small electric vehicles in China.”

“The development of electric vehicles has been widely established by governments around the world as an important way to ensure energy security and transform into a low-carbon economy. No matter which country or the United States, the European Union or Japan, there is no objection, so the direction is no problem.” September 4th Professor Ouyang Minggao of Tsinghua University said.

As the head of the overall group of national "863" plan energy-saving and new energy automobile major projects, Ouyang Minggao's ideas reflect the development of new energy vehicles in the "planning".

According to Ouyang Minggao's prediction, gasoline engine vehicles will continue to grow until 2020, but there will be a relatively large drop after 2020. "In the 12th Five-Year Plan period, I think that the miniaturization of automobiles and the electrification of power will meet with each other, which is a golden opportunity for the development of China's small electric vehicles."

Generally speaking, the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is to unify the two major trends of energy diversification and power electrification, study a new generation of pure electric drive platform, and seize the technical commanding height of electric vehicles. For Ouyang Minggao, this is easy to say, but it is very difficult to do.

In terms of specific routes, Ouyang Minggao proposed a “two-headed” vehicle development strategy, that is, according to the size of the vehicle model and the length of the mileage, the vehicle is divided into several segments. The short-distance use of low-speed and small-scale is purely electric, high-speed, Long-distance fuel cells have advantages in this area, and the middle part is a rechargeable, conventional hybrid-dominated area.

"Planning" should take into account energy diversification According to the forecast of the Development Research Center of the State Council, energy conservation in the automotive industry has recently come from the contribution of traditional car energy conservation. In the past 10 years, energy efficiency from conventional vehicles will account for nearly 80%.

On September 3, Rong Huikang, an expert committee member of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, told reporters that “Planning” will not be introduced in the near future, and the diversified development of new energy policies should also hear more opinions from the industry. "When it comes to new energy vehicles, most of them think of pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and fuel cells. This is one-sided."

A number of experts interviewed believe that electric vehicles currently do not have the conditions for industrialization in China, and new energy should be vigorously developed in the direction of hybrid power, natural gas, and methanol, which is in line with the national conditions of our country.

In Rong Huikang's opinion, the fuel issue depends on whether the four aspects can be resolved. The first is whether there will be resources, the second will not cause pollution, the third will not be able to save energy, the fourth will not reduce emissions, and methanol will fully comply with this. Several conditions.

“Energy diversification cannot be just electricity. Even if it is electricity, more than 70% of it is coal-fired, and the coal combustion process becomes electricity. Now that we use coal as methanol, its sulfur can be fully recovered, and its carbon dioxide can also be absorbed and used. At present, a domestic company can do, 70% methanol concentration of carbon dioxide can be recycled as urea, acetic acid." Rong Huikang stressed.

Rong Huikang gave an example. In Changzhi, Shanxi, there were 148 methanol buses modified by the FAW 6102 engine, which had been in operation for six years and cost 40% lower than gasoline and diesel vehicles.

“At present, China’s electric vehicles have not yet reached the industrialization stage. BYD spent several hundred million to invest in a battery plant. After several years of investment, it still did not realize industrialization. Auto companies must step up investigations and research to find out how their product structure adapts to market requirements. This is the most important thing.” Rong Huikang’s determination of an electric car also requires a difficult problem. “It is necessary for companies to make full preparations, but the focus should now be on hybrid power, natural gas and methanol. ”

Regarding alternative energy, according to the design of the national "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the application of natural gas to civilian transportation will intensify. In China's entire energy structure, the current natural gas ratio is very low, less than 4%, and the world average is 23.8%. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, there must be a big development in natural gas, which is likely to increase by 4 percentage points.

Feng Fei, director of the Industrial Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, predicts that there is still a huge space for the use of natural gas in civil use. One of the directions for the discussion of more natural gas applications in the energy industry is automotive and transportation.

While taking into account the diversification of energy sources, it is another job to focus on the energy conservation and emission reduction of traditional vehicles. According to the forecast of the Development Research Center of the State Council, the energy conservation of the automotive industry has recently come from the contribution of traditional vehicle energy conservation. In the last 10 years or so, the energy efficiency of traditional vehicles will account for nearly 80%.