Trends in the second half of the machinery industry

In the first five months of this year, the situation in the machinery industry was more severe than that imagined at the beginning of the year. At the Economic Operations Analysis Meeting of the China Machinery Industry Federation’s Expert Committee recently held, from January to May, the major economic indicators of the machinery industry fell month by month, focusing on the following: In the past many years, the machinery industry increased its product varieties The ratio is 70%, and the decline is 30%. In the first five months of this year, the number of breeds that grew year-on-year was only 40%, and the decline was 60%. This is rare after entering the new century.

Growth rate of 5.5%

Statistics show that since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of the machinery industry has slowed down and the indicators have grown slowly. From January to May, the industrial added value of enterprises above the scale of machinery industry increased by 5.5%, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than that from January to April; the main business income increased by 3.9% from January to April, and the profit growth was only 0.83%. The new low, profitability weakened.

From the perspective of operating characteristics, the growth rate of the machinery industry continues to slow down, and the main economic indicators have grown slowly. The value-added of the machinery industry increased by 6.8% from January to February, 6.3% from January to March, 5.8% from January to April, and 5.5% from January to May, and the growth rate continued to slow. During the period from January to May in the national statistics of 49 medium-sized industries, the growth rate of the value-added of the machinery industry was 36 years lower than that of the same period of last year.

More than half of the product output decreased year-on-year. Of the 119 key product outputs monitored in key areas, 71 products were declining from January to May compared with the same period last year, accounting for 59.66%, and product varieties with year-on-year decrease continued to increase; there were only 48 products with a year-on-year increase, accounting for 40.34%. . Among the products with a year-on-year decline, there were 44 products with a double-digit drop in the current month, with a cumulative total of 30 double-digit declines.

Low profit growth, operating efficiency has slowed down. From January to April, the main business income of the machinery industry was 6.79 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year; the total profit was 437.759 billion yuan, an increase of 0.83% year-on-year, but still 2.6 percentage points higher than the national industry (1.3% of national industrial decline). Among them, one of the main reasons for the decline in the profit growth of the machinery industry is that due to the higher base of the automotive industry last year, the profits of the auto industry fell sharply in the first five months of this year.

Export growth fell month by month and imports continued to decline. According to data released by the National Customs, China's export of mechanical and electrical products from January to May was 3.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.7%. Among them, exports of electrical appliances and electronic products were 1.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.1%; machinery and equipment were 913.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.1%. It is expected that the export of mechanical products in May is still not optimistic. Among the key products, automobile exports declined significantly. From January to May, customs statistics and statistics on automobile exports reached 317,000, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6%.

At the same time, with the gradual implementation of a series of steady growth policies by the state, some of the leading indicators in the machinery industry show signs of improvement. First, the decline in cumulative orders for key companies has narrowed. From January to April, accumulative orders from the key enterprises in the machinery industry fell by 3.8%, which was a 5.44 percentage point drop from the first quarter. Second, the financing environment tends to improve, and the growth of financial expenses and interest expenses has started to decline since the second half of last year. Third, the trend of rising accounts receivable was initially contained, and the increase started to decline slightly. Fourth, the high growth of finished goods inventory has slowed down. Fifth, the price index lasted for 3 months at 98.86%, indicating signs of stabilization. Sixth, the purchase price is still at a low level, which will help the machinery industry to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Seventh, private enterprises have maintained upward momentum.

The industry is now divided into structural adjustments

In view of the industry's downward trend since the first half of the year, Cai Weici frankly stated that this is a reversal of the structural adjustment of the macro-economy and the industrial structure of the machinery industry, which is dominated by investment products.

Among them, the largest decline is in investment products such as construction machinery and heavy mining machinery. Statistics show that from January to April, the accumulative total product output of the construction machinery industry has a negative year-on-year growth rate. Among them, loader and excavation, shoveling soil transportation machinery products have a larger decline in output growth. In April, the output of major products of the construction machinery industry was still in a declining trend. From the quarter-on-quarter point of view, with the exception of compacted machinery, which grew by 1.69%, the output growth of other sub-industry products was negative.

In contrast, industries that are more closely linked to the consumer market, such as the automotive industry, have continued to grow in the first five months despite a decline compared to the previous year. According to the statistics released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on June 23, from January to May, the production and sales of passenger cars were 8,740,500 and 8,583,200, respectively, an increase of 7.79% and 6.36% respectively.

From the perspective of imports and exports, although the export situation is largely affected by the exchange rate. However, from the current situation, the decline in machinery industry imports fell more than exports. Therefore, although the situation is difficult, objectively, the international competitiveness of the machinery industry is improving.

Statistics show that from January to April, the export of machine tool goods was US$3.541 billion, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year. The export value of metal processing machine tools was 1.053 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 10% year-on-year. Imports of machine tools and tools amounted to US$4.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%. The import value of metal processing machines was US$2.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%.

The growth of the general trade of machinery industry is higher than that of the entire export. In general trade exports, the growth rate of products with relatively high technological content is higher than the average growth rate of general trade. In spite of the deficit in the machine tool industry, the export growth rate is higher than the export growth rate. Although the overall situation is grim, but under the compulsion, the product structure of the machinery industry is upgraded. Do not underestimate the status quo of the industry development. Under the pressure of the situation, the overall quality of the industry will increase. Therefore, the entire industry must increase its confidence.