· April PMI is 50.1%, which is the same as last month. China will increase its directional control.

Two days later, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center released PMI data on May 1st. The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.1% in April, unchanged from the previous month, creating a new low in the same period of the previous year. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Multi-party analysis believes that the current trend of China's economic operation is different, and the downward pressure is still relatively large. The Politburo meeting called for a high degree of attention to coping with the downward pressure on the economy and increasing the intensity of directional regulation, indicating that steady growth has become the top priority. It is expected that the fiscal policy will be more active in the second quarter, supporting government investment by increasing public expenditures; monetary policy is neutral and loose, and while lowering the rate cuts, innovation and application of monetary policy tools will be combined to guide the moderate acceleration of liquidity.
Downside pressure on the economy is still big This year, some new growth points in China's economy have emerged, and new growth drivers are taking shape. However, external demand contracted, and various internal contradictions aggregated, and the downward pressure on the economy remained large. The PMI data released recently has been weak, indicating that the downward pressure on the economy cannot be ignored.
Chen Zhongtao, senior economist at the China Logistics Information Center, said that the first is that there is downward pressure on growth, mainly due to weak demand. From January to April, the new order index remained at a level slightly above 50%, which was generally weak. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the number of enterprises reporting insufficient orders has increased significantly, accounting for more than 48%, significantly higher than the first three quarters of last year. Second, there is a downward trend in benefits. On the one hand, due to the tight market environment, the scale of enterprise expansion has slowed down. On the other hand, corporate cost pressures have increased, labor, capital, logistics and other costs have been higher, and corporate profit margins have been squeezed.
Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that downward pressure on manufacturing still exists. First, domestic and international market demand is still insufficient. The new orders index for April was 50.2%, which was the same as that of the previous month, which was lower than the historical average. The new export order index was 48.1%, which fell for two consecutive months. Second, the manufacturing industry was still in the stage of structural adjustment and destocking. Enterprises control production, and the traditional overcapacity industry is particularly prominent. The finished goods inventory index was 48.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and was continuously below the critical point.
The non-manufacturing business activity index announced at the same time as PMI also performed poorly, not only for two consecutive months, but also for the new order index to fall below the critical point. Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that the data in April fell slightly, mainly due to the slowdown in the growth rate of business activities in the construction industry.
The downward pressure on the economy has not diminished, which has increased the risk of low inflation. Wang Hongwei, a researcher at the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the reporter of the Economic Information Daily (microblogging) that it was affected by various factors at home and abroad, especially the sustained economic slowdown and the negative growth of the industrial producer price index (PPI). China will face a certain risk of deflation in the future.
Intensifying the direction and regulation In response to the current economic situation, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee proposed to "increase the intensity of directional regulation and control", "maintain stable growth, promote reform, adjust structure, benefit the people's livelihood, and comprehensively prevent risks." Some analysts believe that the meeting will continue to put steady growth in the first place, and adjust the structure to retreat to the third, which means that macro-control policies may highlight stable growth targets. Guan Qingyou (microblogging), the executive director of the Minsheng Securities Research Institute, said that the central government’s macro management thinking has undergone a major turning point, abandoning the “total supply contraction” of the past two years, turning to “total demand expansion”, and the main idea of ​​total demand expansion. It is "the central currency is loose + the local infrastructure is at the bottom".
Changes in regulatory thinking are related to the current shift in economic growth. Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher at the State Council Counselor's Office, believes that China is in a shift period with weak traditional growth momentum and new growth momentum. It should prevent the traditional power from decaying too fast and avoid the situation of green and yellow, so it is still important to stabilize growth. To grasp, we must "ensure the smooth operation of the economy and ensure the continuous increase of residents' employment and income" as the basic disk of the current Chinese economy.
Intensified regulation and control of innovative monetary policy tools will inevitably require fiscal policies to be more active. The Politburo meeting emphasized that “positive fiscal policy should increase public spending” and “focus on the key role of investment”. According to the "Economic Information Daily" reporter, the relevant work is already in preparation and will be launched in the near future. On April 24, Luo Guosan, deputy director of the Investment Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that a new batch of major engineering packages will be launched in the near future. The National Development and Reform Commission will continuously replenish some major projects that meet the requirements and conditions, and form a "four batches", that is, "implement a batch, approve a batch, reserve a batch, and plan a batch." On April 27th, the website of the National Development and Reform Commission issued a feasibility report on the two civil airports in Chongqing and Inner Mongolia.
Monetary policy will not turn sharply. The meeting of the Central Political Bureau clearly stated that a sound monetary policy should be well grasped and attention should be paid to the channel of transmission of monetary policy to the real economy.
Li Xuesong, deputy director of the Institute of Quantitative Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that China's current liquidity is generally tight. With the balance of payments and the RMB exchange rate, coupled with the adjustment of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing monetary policy, the Bank of China recently. The growth rate of foreign exchange accounts has slowed down, and the usual use of foreign exchange to deposit basic money channels has been restrained. This has also prompted China's central bank to innovate monetary policy tools to ease the liquidity of the banking system. Under the situation that China's economic downward pressure continues to increase, adhering to monetary policy neutrality and reform and innovation, we must integrate reform and innovation in monetary policy regulation, innovate and optimize monetary policy tools, effectively pre-adjust monetary policy and moderately increase liquidity. .
Jiang Chao, chief macroeconomic analyst of Haitong Securities, believes that the current economic growth rate continues to decline, high interest rates are the main risk, 6.8% of the loan interest rate is much higher than the nominal growth rate of 5.8% of gross domestic product (GDP), and interest rates are urgently needed to be lowered. At present, the central bank has cut interest rates twice and lowered the rate twice. Although it has succeeded in reducing the short-term monetary interest rate to about 2.5%, the long-term 10-year state-owned bond interest rate is still as high as 3.8%, and the interest rate linked to long-term interest rates is high. High difficulty. At present, the liquidity of the financial market is extremely loose, and the interest rate of the currency has fallen sharply. Although the RRR cut can continue to strengthen the monetary easing, it has a limited effect on lowering the credit interest rate. An important reason for the high interest rate is the issuance of over one trillion local bonds. In the future, the central bank may consider purchasing direct or indirect local debt through policy banks after capital injection. Another important reason is that the bank's willingness to supply funds is insufficient in the context of interest rate marketization. In the future, it may consider promoting credit mortgage refinancing, similar to the central bank's purchase of bank credit.

The IKIA Pedal axle