The end of the fuel truck era? When will the deadline for suspension of sales in China be?

The end of the fuel truck era? Take a look at China's timetable

At present, many countries around the world have clarified the timetable for the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, and China has put this on the agenda. A lot of car companies have become more and more enthusiastic. They have increased the productivity of new energy vehicles, and some even announced that they will stop selling fuel vehicles.

On October 19th, Changan Automobile, one of China's largest state-owned automakers, announced that it would completely stop the sale of conventional fuel vehicles by 2025. This is the first car company in China that has announced a clear stop of the sale of conventional fuel vehicles.

Earlier, Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, mentioned that some countries have already set a timetable for stopping the production and sales of traditional energy vehicles. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also started relevant research and will also formulate a timetable for China with related departments.

Although China's timetable has not yet been determined, many countries will focus their timetables on the ban on fuel trucks between 2025 and 2040. For example, the Netherlands banned the sale of fuel vehicles in 2025, Germany banned the sale of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles after 2030, and France banned the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2040.

Then, when will the deadline for the suspension of the sale of Chinese fuel vehicles stop? Can new energy vehicles completely replace fuel vehicles?

The timetable cannot be referenced abroad

The US “Wall Street Journal” website reported on October 19 that most Chinese automakers are increasing the productivity of electric vehicles due to the impact of official policies.

The report said that in September the Chinese government required domestic and foreign automakers to start producing new energy vehicles by 2019. The official policy calls for sales of 7 million electric vehicles in China by 2025, accounting for about one-fifth of the total annual sales of automobiles.

Zhou Hongchun, researcher of the Development Research Center of the State Council, told reporters from the China News Service that the stoppage of sales of the fuel vehicles depends on several aspects. First, whether the total amount of electric vehicle production can replace the fuel vehicles; second, the electric vehicles Whether or not the supporting facilities are complete; Third, the implementation of environmental standards, "If the future of the environment is getting higher and higher, it will accelerate the process."

The data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that in 2016 China's auto production and sales respectively completed 28.119 million vehicles and 28.058 million vehicles. Among them, 517,000 new energy vehicles were produced in 2016, and 507,000 vehicles were sold. As can be seen from the data, the production of new energy vehicles in 2016 accounted for approximately 1.8% of the total automobile production.

Looking at the charging piles again, according to statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of April this year, the total amount of public charging infrastructure in China was 171,000. There are only 4 regions in which the construction of public piles exceeds 10,000 yuan, namely Guangdong, Beijing, Jiangsu, and Shanghai.

"At this stage, charging infrastructure still does not match the progress of vehicle development," said Ouyang Minggao, executive vice president of the China Electric Vehicles Centennial Association. This is mainly reflected in the unreasonable layout of public charging infrastructure. Less than a local charge, second, the existing utilization rate of charging facilities is not high, and the existing electric vehicles require higher and higher charging technology, and fast-charged related facilities have been unable to keep pace with their development.

Therefore, in Zhou Hongchun's view, the discontinuation of the sale of fuel vehicles will be difficult to achieve in China in the short term. He told the country that it was a train reporter. China's per capita income, car ownership, etc. are different from those of other countries. Therefore, the timetable is not comparable. From the perspective of technological progress, the speed of substitution will be accelerated, but there is still a process of substitution from the perspective of a country with a vast territory and a large population.

In addition, Zhou Hongchun also pointed out: “Those who are accustomed to using fuel vehicles, if they have bought a fuel vehicle and their emission standards are met, will need some policy incentives to phase out. There must be a process in between. Even if the production is discontinued, the fuel vehicles on the market will be discontinued. There will still be a period of time."

How can new energy vehicles hit the road?

According to data from CR NRC, an authoritative consumer survey agency in the United States, high prices, insufficient charging infrastructure and limited single-charge mileage are three factors that affect the enthusiasm of consumers to purchase new energy vehicles. The percentages have reached 66% and 60 respectively. % and 58%.

In order to improve this situation, the British Transport Minister issued a new automatic and electric vehicle bill that requires gas stations to install charging facilities to meet the growing demand for electric vehicles in the country. Otherwise, the bill will even give the government the right to intervene and force the installation in the country. Charging station.

Compared to foreign countries focusing on charging stations, China is committed to promoting the development of new energy industries. On September 28, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine jointly announced the "Measures for the Concurrent Management of the Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Integration" (hereinafter referred to as "Measures"). )).

The "Measures" set up two kinds of points for the company's average fuel consumption and new energy vehicles, and establish a point trading mechanism, which will take effect on April 1, 2018. This means that in addition to the need for automakers to reduce fuel consumption to obtain positive fuel consumption points, they must also sell a sufficient number of new energy vehicles to obtain new energy points.

In addition to the "dual-integration" policy, new energy vehicles have received special care in terms of shake numbers and subsidies.

"We must comply with international trends and allow new energy vehicles to replace fuel vehicles, but at the same time we must also consider the upgrading of industrial development and the people's needs for living." Zhou Hongchun pointed out that the government can introduce policies to regulate new energy vehicles and traditional fuel The price-performance relationship of the car will guide the market and accelerate the pace of development of new energy vehicles.

However, the development of new energy vehicles cannot rely solely on government guidance. Chen Qingquan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, believes that fuel vehicles are still irreplaceable and that changes in old and new energy sources still depend on the market.

In terms of concrete implementation, Chen Qingquan's point is that we must step by step and divide the region step by step. During this period, relevant departments need to listen more to the voices of the industry and academia and rationally formulate policies. For example, the ban on the sale of traditional fuel vehicles can be canceled from the north to the Guangzhou-Shenzhen area as a pilot.